Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Japan Post Holdings - World's Largest Cleanup Trade Announced - Story and Index Implications

Japan Post – Post Office Business Delivers a Perfect Setup

Japan Post Holdings BUYBACK - Recycling Sale Proceeds As Expected; No BIG Catalyst Yet

Gravity Works As WeWork Doesn't; Now Plan B

Japan Post Insurance - A Surprising Selloff But Still A Buy

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Last week, several news outlets (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-30/japan-plans-to-sell-8-9-billion-postal-giant-stake-in-october" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg</a>) reported that the Japanese government had told brokerage officials that it planned on executing a sale of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> shares to the tune of ¥1 trillion (using Tuesday's closing price as a guide), with an official announcement to be made on 6 October (this coming Wednesday). The government currently owns ~61%, and the goal of an offering and a possible direct sale of shares back to the issuer would be to reduce the government's holding in Japan Post Holding down to just over one-third, which is the legal minimum as per the Bill to Partially Revise the Postal Privatization Law passed in 2012.The shares fell, in anticipation of the supply to come, and have been falling since.  <section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/233/344/original/Screenshot+2021-10-04+at+11.19.38+AM.png?1633317592" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="233344"></figure></section>The numbers suggest a public sale of 1,000,000,000 shares or slightly more.Those numbers may not be right.And the repercussions from thinking about it that way are important.

Last week, several news outlets (Bloomberg) reported that the Japanese government had told brokerage officials that it planned on executing a sale of Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) shares to the tune of ¥1 trillion (using Tuesday's closing price as a guide), with an official announcement to be made on 6 October (this coming Wednesday). The government currently owns ~61%, and the goal of an offering and a possible direct sale of shares back to the issuer would be to reduce the government's holding in Japan Post Holding down to just over one-third, which is the legal minimum as per the Bill to Partially Revise the Postal Privatization Law passed in 2012.The shares fell, in anticipation of the supply to come, and have been falling since.  The numbers suggest a public sale of 1,000,000,000 shares or slightly more.Those numbers may not be right.And the repercussions from thinking about it that way are important. 

Japan Post Holdings - This Is the Big Move