Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Shinsei Reports Results - What Looks Bad Isn't So Bad, But It Isn't Fantastic

SBI (8473) Launches a HOSTILE Tender Offer on Shinsei Bank (8303)!

Flash Webinar | SBI’s Hostile Tender to Control Shinsei Bank

2021 High Conviction Update - Shinsei Bank Float Squeeze to Mitigate Near-Term

Fubon Financial Deal for Jih Sun Gets TFTC Signoff

Fubon Financial Offer for Jih Sun Gets Even Weirder

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a> was my "High Conviction" idea for 2021 as presented 22 December 2020 in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/2021-high-conviction-shinsei-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46544" rel="noopener">2021 High Conviction - Shinsei Bank</a> (the first green dot in the chart below).</p><p>The stock rose ~50% in just under 3 months, outperforming other banks by 20+%. </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/202/636/original/Screenshot+2021-04-26+at+10.41.25+AM.png?1619404897" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="202636"></figure><p>I warned of a pause on the squeeze in March in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/2021-high-conviction-update-shinsei-bank-float-squeeze-to-mitigate-near-term" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48989" rel="noopener">2021 High Conviction Update - Shinsei Bank Float Squeeze to Mitigate Near-Term</a>, and since then the shares are down more than 13% (and ~20% from intraday highs in March) as huge buying flow from the buyback programme ended and SBI appears to have bought what they wanted to buy before end-March. The stock has underperformed a basket of 9 bank peers by 13% from the top and about 10% since I wrote (the second green dot below).</p>
<p>That pause refreshed. Event catalysts may come in May. </p></section>

Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) was my "High Conviction" idea for 2021 as presented 22 December 2020 in 2021 High Conviction - Shinsei Bank (the first green dot in the chart below).The stock rose ~50% in just under 3 months, outperforming other banks by 20+%. I warned of a pause on the squeeze in March in 2021 High Conviction Update - Shinsei Bank Float Squeeze to Mitigate Near-Term, and since then the shares are down more than 13% (and ~20% from intraday highs in March) as huge buying flow from the buyback programme ended and SBI appears to have bought what they wanted to buy before end-March. The stock has underperformed a basket of 9 bank peers by 13% from the top and about 10% since I wrote (the second green dot below).
That pause refreshed. Event catalysts may come in May. 

Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) Update - The Pause That Refreshed May End Soon

SBI Shinsei Bank

Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) Update - The Pause That Refreshed May End Soon