Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

An equity research analyst with over 7 years of experience in multiple sectors. Previously worked for one of the world's largest asset managers with about USD2.5trn in AUM, covering small and micro-cap companies in the consumer sphere across Europe and developed Asia. Also experienced in covering multiple industries including banking, insurance and asset management, retail, tech, telco and REIT.

Equity Analyst

Heineken Holdco Discount: About Time for a Change in Direction

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/heineken-holding-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21118:1" rel="noopener">Heineken Holding NV (HEIO NA)</a> is currently trading at holdco discount of 17.1%, which is around -1.67x the standard deviation of the 90-day average holdco discount.</li>
<li>The holdco discount has generally followed an expanding trend during the last 18 months. (From around 6.0-10.0% pre-COVID to an average of 14% over the last 12 months).</li>
<li>With the sector seemingly overvalued and Heineken NV trading expensive to peers, we expect the discount to return to the pre-COVID level (6-11%) alongside a correction in the sector’s valuations.</li>
</ul>



Heineken Holding NV (HEIO NA) is currently trading at holdco discount of 17.1%, which is around -1.67x the standard deviation of the 90-day average holdco discount.
The holdco discount has generally followed an expanding trend during the last 18 months. (From around 6.0-10.0% pre-COVID to an average of 14% over the last 12 months).
With the sector seemingly overvalued and Heineken NV trading expensive to peers, we expect the discount to return to the pre-COVID level (6-11%) alongside a correction in the sector’s valuations.


Heineken Holdings: Holdco Discount Could Return to Pre-COVID Levels